2022, ANO DE RENOVAÇÃO E DE VIRAR A MESA
Os efeitos maléficos da pandemia estão passando e os bons ventos podem vir a soprar em 2022. Apesar do avanço da variante Omicron me parece não ser tão letal quanto a variante Delta e a expectativa é de que a economia reaja em 2022. O ritmo e a cadência dos investimentos esperados darão o tom dessa tendência futura da economia.
Em um ano embalado por eleições presidenciais e copa de Mundo, 2022 será um ano que ficará para a estória pois o cidadão brasileiro terá a oportunidade em reescrever novos capítulos com pinceladas extensas de otimismo, esperança e fé. E de virar a mesa, com fé e entusiasmo.
Sou otimista por natureza e o mais importante é observar a tendência e para aonde está indo o fluxo de investimentos. Em 2021, de acordo com pesquisa realizada pelo SEBRAE, a incerteza sobre a demanda, limitação de recursos e o elevado custo de financiamento são os prinicpais fatores que poderão influenciar negativamente o deslanche dos investimentos em 2022.
A incerteza futura da economia, fez com as empresas de pequeno e de micro porte olhassem com maior cautela as decisões relativas aos investimentos em 2022. Cerca de 44,6% das empresas que participaram da pesquisa responderam que vão diminuir ou manter o nivel de investimentos para 2022. Um outro elemento apontado para a cautela em relação aos investimentos foi a limitação de recursos , 42,1% da empresas respondentes ficarão mais comedidas. E por último, o custo do financiamento foi apontado por 29% das respondentes e que farão recuar ou manter um nivel de investimento menor.
O balde de água fria foi lançado. Sobretudo em se tratando de um universo de empresas responsáveis por quase a metade da produção nacional de bens e serviços. A pergunta é até quando esse pensamento irá vigorar.
O ano de 2022 desponta com oportunidades do país renovar. Esse espírito de renovação depende do resultado das urnas em outubro do ano que vem. Apesar do esfacelamento das contas públicas regateada pelo mal uso do dinheiro público e com baixissima eficiência a ajudar a realmente quem necessita e precisa, não é hora de perder a esperança.
Os manuais de economia nos mostram que estímulos direcionados aos componentes da demanda agregada – CONSUMO, INVESTIMENTO, GASTOS DO GOVERNO, SETOR EXTERNO – podem ter efeitos multiplicados internamente. Ainda que cada um esses elementos esteja com o fôlego baixo, a reversão das expectativas futuras, pode dar um novo direcionamento à economia e essa voltar a crescer com mais robustez.
Os indicadores apontados pelo Boletim Focus, apontam para uma inflação de 1 dígito, 5,03%. Uma expansão do PIB pífia, de 0,5% e uma taxa SELIC de 11,05% para segurar o galope da inflação. Esses números são uma projeção realizada pelo Banco Central em 2021 mas que podem daqui a 1 ano estarem completamente diferentes.
A reação externa será fundamental para “puxar” a economia brasileira novamente dentro de um cenário positivo de crescimento econômico sustentado.
Se os surtos de COVID-19 em 2022 não forem tão graves, é bem provável que tenhamos um cenário bem mais promissor.
Portanto não esqueçamos, 2022 pode ser a oportunidade que temo para virar a mesa. E em dia de Natal, desejo a todos meus leitores um dia maravilhoso, que o espírito da renovação, da fé e da esperança não faltem nesse dia tão esperado após mais um ano marcado por dificuldades, desesperança.
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