PIB EM QUEDA
As notícias do desempenho da economia em 2021 só atestam o difícil caminho que teremos pela frente. O encolhimento da economia segundo dados do Instituto Brasileiro de Estatísticas Brasileiro, o IBGE, o terceiro trimestre de 2021, foi de -0,1% . Esse desempenho reforça a tendência para os próximos meses.
Utilizando o jargão economês, a economia brasileira entrou em recessão técnica. Isso significa dizer que por dois trimestres consecutivos, o arrefecimento da economia trouxe uma queda no desempenho do PIB como um todo.
No primeiro trimestre do ano, o PIB — cresceu 1,2%. No período seguinte, teve queda de 0,4%, segundo revisão divulgada pelo instituto. Anteriormente, a queda registrada de abril a junho era de 0,1%.
Desta vez as exportações apresentaram uma queda de 9,8% e a atividade agrícola também recuou em 8%. O cenário externo associado a falta de chuvas contribuíram para a retração econômica. Em uma situação de pandemia, tais previsões desanimam àqueles que estão sofrendo com esse enfraquecimento da atividade como um todo. O nível de desemprego não cede e continuamos com uma cifra de 14,5 milhões de brasileiros em busca de emprego.
Em um período de pandemia, a recuperação em 2021 e em 2022 mostram-se cada vez mais distantes. Apesar das bad news, a indústria manteve-se estável e os serviços apresentaram uma leve alta de 1,1% no período. É importante lembrar que, a indústria responde por 20% da atividade econômica e serviços por 70% do PIB.
Quando se faz uma comparação do desempenho do PIB brasileiro em relação a 2020, crescemos 4%.
A recuperação econômica dependerá da adoção de medidas que estimulem os elementos da demanda efetiva: consumo, investimento, gastos do governo e setor externo. É crucial que haja um plano de ação que promova a expansão desses elementos. somente por meio da adoção de política expansionistas fiscais e monetárias conseguiremos decolar e alcançar estatísticas mais promissoras futuramente.
A aprovação do Auxilio Brasil, pode segurar no médio e longo prazos a queda expressiva da atividade econômica. O efeito multiplicador da demanda de inúmeros brasileiros a política afetará positivamente os demais setores da economia.
Atualmente temos 19 milhões de brasileiros em situação de insegurança alimentar poderão sentir-se amparados e apoiados pelas políticas de apoio à essa população fortemente afetada pela pandemia.
Uma das lições que os governantes futuros do país deverão atentar-se é como fazer com que a economia se recupere em 2022 de modo a evitar ou pelo menos interromper essa trajetória do PIB em queda.
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