A Pandemia e o Consumo de Energia no Brasil
Mauricio Machado Fernandes Filho
Paula Meyer Soares
A vacinação no Brasil finalmente chega em faixas etárias mais baixas estando, de forma geral, na data 16 de agosto, na idade de 18 anos. Isso indica que em breve (por volta de 4 a 6 meses), será identificada uma tendência de flexibilização e ou extinção das medidas de distanciamento social e das medidas de restrições de movimentação.
A cidade de Foz do Iguaçu, localizada no Paraná, é um exemplo dessa tendência, já tendo abolido o lockdown e iniciando no mês de agosto a flexibilização do limite de indivíduos permitidos em festas e eventos. Assim, um questionamento presente com essa mudança de paradigma é: qual será o impacto no consumo elétrico do país com a extinção dessas medidas?
Durante a pandemia, o consumo elétrico do brasileiro teve significativa queda em todas suas regiões sendo o subsistema Sudeste-Centro-Oeste o mais afetado, tendo redução de 20% de consumo. (EPE, 2020).
Essa redução foi seguida de planos de retomada econômica dando uma “folga” para a utilização de bens domésticos pela população. Porém, passados diversos meses de pandemia (quase 2 anos/ 24 meses) essas folgas se afinaram e a população acabou sofrendo o impacto da baixa coleta, recebendo um aumento de tarifa. Esse aumento de tarifa tem como objetivo maior coleta pelo consumo elétrico, devido a alta queda durante a pandemia, porém o que acontece quando o cenário de consumo antes da pandemia voltar a ser uma realidade nacional?
Pode-se traçar um paralelo interessante da situação brasileira com a situação da Índia. Segundo, dados da Agencia Nacional de Energia Elétrica, ANEEL, na primeira semana de Agosto de 2021, o país teve um aumento de 9,3% de consumo elétrico. Esse aumento teve como principal motivo a retirada de medidas restritivas para com o vírus do Covid-19.
De acordo com os dados do Operador Nacional de Sistema Elétrico, ONS , considerando tal recuperação do PIB, projeta-se uma expansão da ordem de 2% para 2,3% em 2021. Já o consumo de energia elétrica na rede do SIN, estima-se uma leve expansão também de 3,7% para 4,3%.
A expectativa é de que até 2024 estima-se que o consumo no SIN cresça à taxa média de 3,8% anuais. Com isso, a projeção do consumo na rede para o ano 2023 encontra-se 5 TWh abaixo do montante previsto na 2ª Revisão Quadrimestral 2019-2023
Esse aumento reflete em um cenário otimista com maior demanda comercial e industrial, o que gera uma maior receita, possibilitando uma redução no custo da energia e uma nova padronização no hábito de consumo elétrico.
Os dados de aumento do consumo de energia elétrica decorrentes do avanço da vacinação já são evidentes. O consumo industrial no SIN esperado nesse período é de que tenha um crescimento médio de 3,3% ao ano, influenciado pela retomada gradual de alguns setores intensivos em energia, em especial, do setor produtor de alumínio primário. As demais classes de consumo, a residencial e comercial por exemplo, devem registrar taxas de crescimento anuais de 3,9% e 4,1%, respectivamente.
Percebe-se espontaneamente e gradualmente a reação da economia nesse novo momento em que a vacinação avança. Conjugado com esse ponto, as medidas de afrouxamento do distanciamento social e maior abertura dos estabelecimentos, indústria e comercio têm também colaborado para a reação positiva do consumo de energia elétrica em todo o país.
Os bons ventos sopram e a expectativa de expansão econômica ronda a casa dos 5% para 2021. Esse é um bom sinal para uma economia cuja taxa de desemprego encontra-se em níveis elevados e que precisa dar sinais de arrefecimento.
Apesar dos bons ventos, o enfrentamento da baixa vazão dos rios, a elevação recente da bandeira tarifaria, não serão suficientes para barrar ou intimidar o crescimento da demanda por energia elétrica. Vários estudos mostram que a correlação forte entre a atividade econômica e consumo de energia. Isso significa dizer que qualquer sinal de recuperação da economia impactará na demanda de energia.
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