O ano de 2021 iniciou com a taxa SELIC a 2% e fecha o período a uma taxa de 9,25%. A aceleração da inflação empurrou a taxa SELIC para esse patamar. Em 2022 as projeções são de uma inflação ainda robusta de 2 dígitos.
Na década de 80 e 90, a inflação foi um dos episódios que açoitaram a população brasileira que via o seu poder aquisitivo diminuir dia-a-dia. Essa lembraça está na mente de muitos brasileiros que viveram esse período e quando era o costume estocar suprimentos alimentícios na dispensa.
Em 2021, a inflação acumulada dos combustíveis já beira 43%, o botijão de gás já foi ajustado em mais de 30%, o IPCA acumulado até agora jé de 10,25%. A cesta básica toma quase 60% do salário mínimo pior proporção em 15 anos. Isso significa dizer que a valores de hoje, a compra de uma cesta básica está em torno de R$ 600.
Em 2005, comprava-se uma cesta básica com 46% do valor do salário mínimo, a menor proporção observando a série de dados do Dieese que acompanha esses dados.
A cidade de São Paulo, itens como arroz, feijão, leite, manteiga e leite são um dos produtos da cesta básica que mais aumentou em 2021. A elevação dos preços deve-se a uma série de fatores, tais como quebra de safras agrícolas, elevação do câmbio, fechamento de fábricas e a própria pandemia.
Diante desse quadro, o rendimento da poupança também sofre alteração prevista em lei. Quando a SELIC se mantém em patamar inferior a 8,5% ao ano, o calculo do rendimento fica em 70% dos juros básicos mais a taxa referencial, que atualmente está em zero. Se o juro básico ultrapassar 8,5%, como é o caso agora, o rendimento passa a ser de 0,5% ao mês, ou 6,17% ao ano, regra conhecida como “poupança velha”.
Em cenários em que a inflação esteja em 2 dígitos, o rendimento básico da poupança é negativo. Isso significa dizer que ao aplicar R$ 1 mil, o retorno de uma aplicação descontada a inflação é menor que o que foi aplicado inicialmente. Como se fala, é dormir com uma nota de R$ 1 mil e acordar com uma nota de R$ 900. Em suma, perde-se dinheiro.
É necessário estudar e buscar outras opções de investimento de modo que possam repor as perdas inflacionárias e ainda apresentar um retorno positivo.
Hoje o mercado apresenta inúmeras opções de renda fixa que garantem retornos de 100% do CDI ou 120% do CDI o que corresponde a rendimentos acima da inflação captada pelo indice oficial da inflação o IPCA.
É importante ficar de olho e observar o que vale a pena e não se esquecer de observar os emolumentos incorridos nas aplicações.
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