O prolongamento da pandemia tem distanciado mais ainda o período de recuperação da economia. As expectativas futuras de recuperação são boas mas distantes enquanto não houver um contingente grande de pessoas vacinadas.
Alguns países já conseguiram reduzir as taxas de contágio, como os Estados Unidos e Alemanha, após o inicio da imunização em massa de sua população. Nesse caso, a recuperação desses países está mais próxima e assegurada com a contenção do alastramento do COVID-19.
No Brasil, de acordo com a Pesquisa Mensal de Serviços, a PMS, publicação do IBGE, em janeiro deste ano, o setor de serviços comparado com o janeiro de 2020, sofreu uma retração de 4,7%. Fazendo-se a comparação com o mês anterior, ou seja, dezembro de 2020, o setor apresentou leve recuperação de +0,6%.
Apesar da fraca recuperação, observa-se que desde maio de 2020 o setor vem apresentando um fraco desempenho mês a mês. As medidas de abertura e de fechamento das atividades restritas ao setor – bares, restaurantes, mobilidade urbana, serviços de beleza, informática, atividades de ensino, algumas atividades médicas, entre outras – impediram o avanço e recuperação das atividades desse setor.
Em 2021 com o aumento do número de óbitos e de pessoas infectadas, as medidas voltadas ao setor foram ainda mais restritivas. Vários estados decretaram lockdown e toque de recolher. Tais medidas tornam mais longínquoas a sua recuperação.
Por tabela, a revisão do Produto Interno Bruto pelo Banco Central segue a mesma tendência, no inicio do ano a previsão era de um crescimento da ordem de 3,47% e agora a revisão desta semana é de 3,26% (Boletim Focus, 05/03/2021)
O pronto estabelecimento da economia depende da velocidade da imunização em todo o país. Diante disso, hoje o presidente da Agencia Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária (ANVISA) pediu a sanção da Medida Provisória (MP) 1.026, que dispensa licitação e ainda prevê regras mais flexíveis para a aquisição de insumos e serviços necessários à imunização contra COVID-19. A MP ainda traz inciso que garante prazo de sete dias úteis para a agência analisar pedidos de uso emergencial de vacinas.
A aquisição de mais vacinas e negociações com outros países produtores do imunizante estão em curso. O avanço da pandemia em todo Brasil é assustador bem como o aumento da média de mortes diária. UTIs estão lotadas, restando poucos leitos. A montagem de hospitais de campanha em alguns estados já se encontra a pleno vapor de modo a assegurar o socorro necessário a todos os brasileiros.
A reação da economia ainda tarda devido aos efeitos colaterais da pandemia nesses últimos meses. Em 2021, a taxa de desemprego recuou para 13,9% segundo dados do IBGE mas o caminho ainda é longo.
A vacinação em massa ainda vai demorar haja visto que o mundo inteiro busca por doses do imunizante afim de esterilizar a sua população. O Brasil está entre os países que mais vacinou até aqui compreendendo 8,7 milhões de brasileiros.
A recuperação prontamente da economia dependerá do ritmo da vacinação de modo a liberar as pessoas a trabalharem e a continuidade das atividades econômicas. Enquanto isso nos resta aguardar a nossa vez, ficar em casa e prestar bem atenção as regras de distanciamento social e lavagem das mãos.
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