INFLAÇÃO MOSTRA A SUA FORÇA E RETOMA ACELERADA
Hoje saiu a inflação oficial do mês de outubro, 1,25%. Em 2021, foi a maior alta mensal já alcançada e comparada com os últimos 19 anos.
No início do ano, especialistas e economistas apontavam para uma inflação de 3,25% para o ano de 2021. Tal previsão passou ao largo e o país já enfrenta uma inflação de 2 dígitos.
O Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor, o INPC, acumula nos últimos 12 meses 11,08%. O INPC contabiliza a inflação para o grupo de famílias que ganham rendimentos de 1 a 5 salários-mínimos. Em outubro, alcançou 1,16%, o maior nível desde outubro de 2002. Apesar de ter desacelerado comparativamente a setembro 2021, quando registrou 1,57% a expectativa é que o índice continue a subir. No ano, o INPC acumula 8,45%.
O segundo ano de pandemia, uma economia enfraquecida com uma demanda agregada apática em responder prontamente aos comandos das políticas monetária e fiscal resultou em um estouro da inflação. Ademais, a manutenção em patamares baixos da taxa de juros por um período demasiadamente longo culminou nessa inflação alta.
O índice oficial que mede a inflação, o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo, o IPCA, acumula nos últimos 12 meses 10,67% quando o teto da meta de inflação é de 5,25%.
A expectativa futura é de que a inflação não cederá. A elevação internacional das commodities de energia (petróleo, gás) e outras commodities (milho, soja, carne, arroba de boi, algodão..) manter-se-ão cotados a preços em dólar cada vez mais elevados.
Ademais, a desvalorização do câmbio decorrente da instabilidade econômica e política mantém-se em curso. E o resultado é a elevação geral dos preços no médio prazo.
Analistas de mercado não tem uma justificativa que explique os erros de projeção para 2021. A inflação atual é difusa e realizar um diagnóstico preciso e com projeções assertivas são difíceis quando não se identifica o gatilho para o spill over nos demais preços da economia. Alguns produtos já apresentam inflação de mais de 1 p.p. – alimentação, serviços, combustíveis, industriais. Os choques de oferta internos e externos continuarão a pressionar os índices futuros. A própria retomada lenta da economia pode corroborar para índices mais altos.
Portanto, apertem o cinto e o bolso. O ano de 2022 será um ano difícil para os assalariados, desempregados e a população de uma maneira geral. Viver em um país onde os preços estão com tendência de alta nos revela que é hora de cautela.
O cenário internacional também aponta nessa direção de inflação alta. A exclusividade não é nossa. O período pós-pandemia trouxe e trará solavancos as economias de uma maneira geral em que a aceleração dos preços é uma realidade em outras economias. No Brasil a preocupação é mais evidente em um cenário em que temos insegurança alimentar e mais de 19 milhões de brasileiros passando fome.
As previsões são de que a inflação apresentará resistências para ceder em 2022 apresentando em alguns momentos uma retomada forte e de subida.
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