CENARIO EXTERNO DE VALORIZAÇÃO DA COMMODITY PRESSIONA O PREÇO DA GASOLINA E ÓLEO DIESEL MAIS UMA VEZ
Ontem foi anunciado mais um aumento no preço dos combustíveis- diesel e gasolina. A expectativa é que o reajuste seja de 10% sobre gasolina e de 15% no diesel seguindo a tendência dos preços internacionais.
Em 2021, o índice de commodities em US$ acumula um aumento de 20,8% e o do petróleo brent (US$/barril) – 1º futuro de 24,21%. No mês de fevereiro esses indicadores ficaram em 13,43% e 16,77% respectivamente.
As oscilações no mercado internacional e a desvalorização da moeda nacional frente ao dólar – em 2021 já acumula uma perda de 4,10% – o que pode explicar ou ao menos justificar o reajuste dos combustíveis.
As defasagens dos preços dos combustíveis em moeda nacional alcançaram os dois dígitos, podendo gerar efeitos devastadores de perdas bilionárias para as empresas do segmento de petróleo e gás.
De acordo com os cálculos realizados pelos analistas da XP, a defasagem no preço do diesel saiu de 19,7% para 7% enquanto o da gasolina ficou em linha com a paridade internacional após o reajuste.
O reajuste é necessário de modo a garantir a continuidade das atividades de refino e de comercialização. Em 6 meses as cotações das ações Petrobras PN saíram da cotação de R$ 23,02 a R$ 29,27, um aumento de mais de 10% no período. A defasagem de 7% do preço do diesel custará US$ 1,9 bilhão à Petrobras no período de um ano.
A negação do reajuste dos preços dos combustíveis pode gerar prejuízos a empresa Petrobras assim como uma perda no valor das ações. O mercado entendeu sendo necessário o reajuste e reagiu bem diante de mais um aumento em 2021.
A notícia de mais um reajuste irritou sobremaneira os caminhoneiros. As pressões de uma paralização em janeiro/21 foram amenizadas com a promessa do governo em zerar os impostos federais e rever os estaduais. E nessa quarta rodada de reajuste dos combustíveis, a zeragem dos impostos ocorrerá a partir de 01 de março com duração de 2 meses.
As pressões externas de elevação no preço das commodities – petróleo e outras agrícolas- tem sido repassadas ao mercado interno. A segunda prévia do IGP-M de fevereiro subiu 2,29%, acelerando na comparação com a primeira prévia (1,92%), embora com alguma moderação em relação ao mês anterior (2,37%). O indicador foi pressionado pelos preços no atacado, principalmente dos produtos agropecuários. Por outro lado, os derivados do petróleo seguem exercendo pressão adicional no indicador agregado.
O segundo ano de pandemia segue dentro de uma perspectiva difícil e duradoura de pressão crescente na economia e poucas expectativas em relação a uma breve recuperação.
Os reajustes sobre os combustíveis são parte de um relato de um ano que sem sombra de dúvidas ficará marcado pelas dificuldades e necessidade de seguir adiante acreditando que dias melhores virão. A imunização da população é o único caminho para que a economia comece a apresentar os primeiros sinais de recuperação. Nos resta aguardar e digerir não somente esse reajuste como tantos outros que estão por vir em 2021.
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